102% is the ratio UBS projects Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will collectively hit in 2026, measured as capital expenditure against cloud revenue. UBS estimates total hyperscaler capex at roughly $4.1 trillion from 2026 through 2028, the sum of $1.009 trillion in 2026, $1.447 trillion in 2027, and $1.619 trillion in 2028. That three-year figure is more than triple the $1.292 trillion the group deployed across the prior six years.
The ratio measures capital intensity, not solvency. Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft operate businesses far larger than cloud infrastructure, so the 102% figure captures how aggressively cloud revenue is being channeled into AI buildout. UBS projects the ratio will ease to roughly 99% in 2027 and 94% in 2028. Total capex still rises in each successive year.
Capex commitments by company, 2026-2028
UBS's projections for the three-year window show the spending pool extending well past the original four hyperscalers:
| Company | 2026-2028 capex (projected) |
|---|---|
| Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) | ~$938 billion |
| Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) | ~$683 billion |
| Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) | ~$672 billion |
| Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) | ~$628 billion |
| SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) | ~$335 billion |
| Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) | ~$276 billion |
| CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) | ~$130 billion |
| Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) | ~$93 billion |
Source: UBS (projected)
SpaceX, Oracle, CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), and Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) broaden the capital base beyond what the traditional hyperscaler narrative covers, and neocloud providers add further to the pool. For chipmakers, networking companies, power suppliers, and data-center operators, UBS notes, this spending becomes revenue somewhere in the supply chain.
The central risk is timing. Companies are committing capital now to capacity that may take years to reach full utilization. If AI adoption moves more slowly than the buildout pace, depreciation outpaces revenue and compresses margins and free cash flow across the sector. A data center generates no return on capital simply because it contains expensive GPUs: utilization, paying customers, and AI service revenue all have to materialize.
UBS frames the investment thesis directly: the winners will be companies converting the buildout into recurring revenue, high utilization, and durable free cash flow. On UBS's numbers, hyperscalers will be spending more than $1.6 trillion in a single calendar year by 2028, even after the initial rate of acceleration begins to slow.