$136, where SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) changed hands this morning, is $49 below the $185 close on June 18, 2026, the day personal finance personality Suze Orman told her podcast audience to dollar-cost average into the stock at around $200. A fresh Sell initiation landed today, one of several bearish analyst ratings now on the name.
The Q2 numbers behind the price
SpaceX beat on revenue in Q2, reporting $7.81 billion against the $6.93 billion expected, with Starlink and AI driving the outperformance. The rest of the ledger: a $541 million net loss and $18.37 billion in capital spending for a single quarter, $15.83 billion of that allocated to AI compute.
| Metric | Reported | vs. expected |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $7.81B | beat $6.93B |
| Q2 net loss | $541M | n/a |
| Q2 capex | $18.37B | n/a |
| AI compute share of capex | $15.83B | n/a |
A business running capex at that rate in a single quarter is a venture bet with a ticker, not a bond substitute. Orman's core audience is retirees and near-retirees. Those two things are in tension.
The supply event the call did not price
On August 7, roughly 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible to trade. That exceeds the approximately 639 million shares sold in the IPO. Buying near the highs before that supply hit is the opposite of what dollar-cost averaging is supposed to protect against.
A listener who committed $500 a month starting June 18 sits with an average cost somewhere in the mid-$150s, a 28% drawdown on the first tranche and smaller losses on later buys. The averaging cushioned the timing. It did not touch the valuation question.
Position size is the deciding variable
A listener who put 2% of a $500,000 portfolio into SPCX at $185 is looking at a loss of roughly $2,650 with the stock at $136. Painful, survivable. A listener who put 25% of the same account in is down over $33,000 on the same advice. Identical guidance, two entirely different outcomes.
Orman's June 18 instruction did not specify a position-size cap. That is where the harm lives.
Rep. Timmons disclosed a SpaceX purchase on July 18, 2026. Today, Musk was amplifying posts about X rather than addressing the stock. Neither changes the Q2 math.