Year-to-date gains above 12% are the floor that still holds for both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after Friday's close, even as each index recorded its first weekly decline in four weeks. Below the headline, both benchmarks undercut the intraday low of their Aug. 4 follow-through days. The Nasdaq also closed below its 21-day exponential moving average.
The follow-through day matters here. It is a technical signal used to confirm a new rally attempt; trading below its low is read by active participants as a degradation of that confirmation. Both indexes crossed that line Friday. The Nasdaq's additional close under the 21-day exponential moving average added a secondary technical breach on top of the follow-through day failure.
The two tests ahead
Two events arrive this week with the potential to move these numbers: Nvidia's earnings report and the Federal Reserve's annual gathering at Jackson Hole. The market enters both with its recent technical structure already under pressure. Year-to-date, above 12% is the gain that remains on the books. The Aug. 4 follow-through day low is the level now in focus.