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Fed Rate Hike Fears May Be Overblown — Warsh Signals a Less Hawkish Fed Than Markets Priced In

6/30/2026

Wall Street has loaded up on rate-hike hedges for a tightening cycle that may never fully arrive.

Inflation is running cooler than consensus assumes, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is projecting a less aggressive stance than his pre-appointment reputation led markets to expect.

Select sectors are positioned to benefit if the rate path disappoints bears.

The Warsh Discount Markets came into this Fed cycle treating Kevin Warsh as a hard-money hawk — a posture built on his long-standing criticism of accommodative policy.