S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% Friday morning as traders positioned for the September nonfarm payrolls report, with economists surveyed by Dow Jones projecting 84,000 new jobs added last month. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 296 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7%, though all three major indexes are on track for a losing week, with the Dow entering Friday with a 1.7% deficit.
Christopher Hodge, chief U.S. economist at Natixis CIB Americas, expects a slower gain of 60,000 jobs, a deceleration from August but still a solid result according to CNBC. Hodge attributes anticipated strength in manufacturing and construction to data center activity. He noted that even a strong payrolls print is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise rates at its October meeting, as the broad consensus holds that hiring conditions remain on solid footing. Fed funds futures indicate traders see roughly a 72% chance the Fed holds rates steady in October.
Oil prices extended their previous session's decline, with Brent crude sliding nearly 3% to $99.35 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate falling 3.7% to $89.19 a barrel. The drop followed reports that the U.K. and European governments are discussing tapping strategic diesel stockpiles, while The Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration has pressed European allies to release diesel supplies.
Bond markets experienced sharp volatility Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5.344%, a level not seen since 2002 according to CNBC, before retreating to as low as 5.21%. The 30-year Treasury yield also reached a 24-year high before easing back. Treasury yields were little changed in early Friday trading. Thursday's stock session closed with the Dow and Nasdaq Composite slightly positive and the S&P 500 adding 0.2%.
Overnight Asian trading was mixed, with Tokyo's Nikkei 225 down 0.94% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 2.8%, while Seoul's Kospi rose 0.46%. Sydney's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 0.79%, and mainland Chinese markets remained closed for a national holiday. European equities were broadly in the green, with the Stoxx 600 posting a gain of close to 1% in early session trading.
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, told CNBC in a Friday note that global equity markets should keep rising as corporate profits continue to grow. He pointed out that companies in the MSCI World index are set for profit growth above 30% in 2026, while firms in emerging markets could see earnings jump more than 65%.