1.5% (reported) was the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rate, falling 50 basis points short of the 2.0% consensus and 60 basis points below Q1's reported 2.1%. Both gaps point the same direction. The economy underperformed on the quarter and decelerated from the prior period.
The numbers reconciled
| Measure | Value | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 GDP growth rate | 1.5% | Reported |
| Consensus expectation | 2.0% | Projected |
| Q1 GDP growth rate | 2.1% | Reported |
| Miss vs. consensus | (50 bps) | Derived |
| Q1-to-Q2 change | (60 bps) | Derived |
The consensus miss (50 bps) and the sequential decline (60 bps) are related but distinct. Growth fell further from Q1 than it missed the consensus. Q1 at 2.1% was already above the 2.0% consensus; the drop to Q2's 1.5% represents a 60-basis-point swing in a single quarter.
Reading the deceleration
At 1.5%, Q2 growth sits 25% below the consensus run-rate on a proportional basis (0.5 percentage points on a 2.0% base). The 60-basis-point sequential drop is the steeper of the two comparisons, meaning the economy lost ground faster quarter-over-quarter than the forecast miss alone captures. The reported Q2 figure of 1.5% is the weakest of the two quarters in the reported window.