A randomized-controlled trial commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America found that a message highlighting former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper's support for federal abortion legislation shifted the Republican vote margin by 4.9 points in favor of Michael Whatley. The study, conducted by Evolving Strategies, tested four different abortion-related messages against a control group using a sample of 2,607 confirmed registered voters in North Carolina.
The research identified the "Fed" message as the most effective tool for shifting opinion, outperforming other tested communications. This message criticized Cooper for backing federal legislation that the organization argues could override state-level abortion laws. The "Record" message, which targeted Cooper's gubernatorial abortion record, produced a 3.2-point shift toward Whatley. Messages focusing on Whatley's own pro-life positions also moved the margin, with a "Hard Positive" message yielding a 3.9-point shift and a "Soft Positive" message resulting in a 1.7-point shift.
| Message Type | Net Shift to Republican Candidate |
|---|---|
| Fed | +4.9 points |
| Hard Positive | +3.9 points |
| Record | +3.2 points |
| Soft Positive | +1.7 points |
The study estimated that among voters identified as the most persuadable targets, the impact of these messages could be substantially larger, moving the Republican vote margin by a net 12 points or more. Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser stated that the group uses consumer data and predictive modeling to identify voters whose opinions are most likely to shift based on specific messaging rather than party affiliation or religious identity.
The organization is deploying these findings in a ground game that has reached more than 770,000 homes across North Carolina. Canvassers are targeting persuadable and low-turnout voters with messages centered on abortion and Cooper's record, including his veto of the state's 2023 law banning most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy. Cooper argued that veto would harm women and families, though the Republican-controlled General Assembly later overrode his veto, allowing the law to take effect.
Dannenfelser told Fox News Digital that Cooper's veto of the 12-week limit was an unpopular move that significantly influences voters. She also noted that Cooper's veto of a bill providing healthcare to babies born alive after attempted abortions contrasts with Whatley's positions. The study measured respondents' stated candidate and policy support after reading the messages, using an online panel matched to voter files and consumer data to refine its targeting strategy for the competitive Senate race.