40.53%, measured from August 7 to September 7, 2026, carried Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) from $73.63 to $105.7. XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) tracked it at 38.87%, moving from $1.02 to $1.41 over the same window. The gains are nearly identical. The catalysts are not.
| SOL | XRP | |
|---|---|---|
| Price, Sept 7, 2026 (reported) | $105.7 | $1.41 |
| 30-day gain (reported) | +40.53% | +38.87% |
| YTD (reported) | -16.86% | -22.95% |
| 1-year (reported) | -48.31% | -49.57% |
| Aug 7 price (reported) | $73.63 | $1.02 |
Neither coin has broken its downtrend. Solana is down 48.31% over the past year and 16.86% year-to-date; XRP is down 49.57% and 22.95%. A strong month off a low base is a better month, not a recovered year.
What Bitcoin explains
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) rose 23.15% over the same 30-day window. Solana moved 40.53% and XRP 38.87%. The excess above Bitcoin's own return is a function of size: smaller coins amplify Bitcoin's direction with more velocity in both directions, and once the shared macro tailwind is removed, coin-specific demand is thin for both.
The rate environment helped set the floor. The Fed's upper bound sits at 3.75%, down from 4.5% on September 7, 2025, and has been at that level since December 2025. Polymarket traders, as of September 7, priced at least one 2026 rate hike at 70.5%, with a September hike specifically at 60% to 65%. Strong job data released September 4, 2026 pushed those odds higher. A 25-basis-point hike would take the upper bound to 4%. When government bonds approach 5%, some capital moves out of assets that pay nothing, and Solana and XRP both typically fall further than Bitcoin when that rotation happens.
XRP's one catalyst
The Senate votes September 15 on cloture for the CLARITY Act, the bill that would write XRP's commodity status into federal law. Polymarket priced the bill being signed in 2026 at roughly 18% as of September 7, down from 90% in February. The cloture vote is reportedly in serious trouble. A failed vote removes the only factor that separates XRP's rally from Solana's on the protocol side.
XRP's year-to-date loss of 22.95% runs deeper than Solana's 16.86%, meaning more of its holders bought above current levels and more sellers are waiting above. A daily close below $95 would break Solana's August rally. For XRP, a failed cloture vote or a daily close below $1.35, the bottom of its range since August 27, marks the same line. A hike September 16 would pressure both, and the coin that rose further carries more downside.