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Soft Jobs Data Cuts Fed Hike Odds, US Futures Flat

Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in the latest monthly report, a figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday that fell well below the 90,000 increase projected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The weak labor market data…

By Lucia Moretti·Oct 5, 2026·1 min read·macro

Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in the latest monthly report, a figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday that fell well below the 90,000 increase projected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The weak labor market data reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this month, with US equity futures trading mostly flat pre-bell Monday. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq futures were 0.2% lower.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 80.6% likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold its benchmark rate steady at the end of the month, up from 76% on Thursday. Traders are watching the Wednesday release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's mid-September policy session for further insight into the central bank's thinking.

Corporate earnings are also on the docket, with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines expected to report their financial results this week. In commodities, oil prices moved in opposite directions. Front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude was up 0.2% at $102.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was 1.2% lower at $89.99 per barrel.

Additional economic data is scheduled for release later in the day, including the S&P Global purchasing managers' index composite final report for August at 9:45 am ET and ISM's services data at 10:00 am ET.

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