House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told Axios he believes Republicans can secure 225 seats in the upcoming election, describing the number as a high-water mark for the party. The claim stands in contrast to the 235-seat majority threshold, which Scalise dismissed as unattainable.
"If we make it a contrast election, we win," Scalise said in an interview conducted Thursday. "We could get to 225. It would be a good night for us if we did, but it's possible," he added. "235 is not. You're literally doing coin tosses in a couple of seats."
Scalise’s projection relies on converting the race into a referendum on the opposing party, a strategy designed to match Democratic voter enthusiasm. He stated that Republicans must drive their voters to the polls by manufacturing the kind of energy Democrats are generating organically. When asked about signs of a blue wave or an expanding map, Scalise responded, "Not right now. No."
Political indicators currently favor Democrats. The party leads by nearly nine percentage points on the generic ballot. According to the RealClearPolitics average, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is below 40%. Additionally, a recent poll shows Trump is underwater by 61 percentage points on inflation, a figure described as an apparent record.
Despite these national headwinds, Republican leadership insists the district-level picture is less dire. "We're not looking at national polls; we go district by district," Scalise said. The party is focusing on 35 battleground seats, where Republicans claim to have proven winners, sufficient funding, and new rules to deploy resources. Scalise broke down these 35 seats into 20 competitive districts Republicans are fighting to hold and 15 districts where they have a real chance to flip.
"These are knock-down, drag-out fights," Scalise said.
The White House has historically viewed midterm elections as a "hate election," a term Scalise replaced with "contrast election." To achieve his projected seat count, Republicans must address an enthusiasm gap and match Democratic turnout levels. The Republican National Convention in Dallas last week served as the initial step in this effort.
Scalise argued that if the party converts that energy into voter participation by November, it will match the other side's turnout and retain control of the chamber.
In the coming two weeks, Scalise plans to travel to 11 states to campaign for 16 Republican candidates, including both incumbents and challengers. Congressional leaders and President Trump are also hitting the campaign trail. While 225 seats represents Scalise’s optimistic ceiling, he acknowledged the majority could be smaller, potentially resembling the 220 to 215 split Republicans won in 2024.
"This isn't going to be a 10-seat majority, but it could be a six-seat majority," Scalise said.