The New York Times and Siena College poll reports longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins holding a 49% support lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson at 46% among likely voters in Maine. The survey, conducted from Sept. 15 to 22, places 5% of respondents in the undecided category, meaning Collins' three-point advantage falls within the margin of error.
This result marks one of the first indications that Collins is ahead since Jackson replaced former nominee Graham Platner in late July. Platner, a combat veteran and oyster farmer, won the June Democratic primary in a landslide but dropped out a month later following an explosive report alleging rape by a former date. Platner denied the allegation and stepped aside after Collins had slightly trailed him in most polling at the time of his departure. Jackson, who campaigned with Platner during his unsuccessful gubernatorial run, won a special nominating convention to secure the party's Senate nomination.
The poll release coincided with Collins' response to a ProPublica report stating the FBI sought to launch a pay-to-play investigation involving her and others. The investigation was subsequently dropped, and no one working for Collins was charged. Collins described the report as "offensive" and a "partisan hit job" orchestrated by Democrats. In response, Jackson posted on social media that "Susan Collins is blatantly corrupt."
Despite Collins leading in the head-to-head matchup, 55% of those surveyed said they prefer Democrats to control the Senate next year, compared to 43% who want the GOP to retain the majority. Collins benefits from favorable ratings of 51% versus 48% unfavorable. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former conservative Republican now running on a progressive platform, holds unfavorable ratings of 49% against 41% favorable.
Jackson has faced various media reports regarding his temper, workplace conduct, mortgage improprieties, and his past strict anti-abortion stance. In August, headlines focused on a resurfaced 1988 police record in Fort Kent, Maine, detailing accusations that Jackson assaulted a man and pushed his longtime partner during a late-night confrontation. Jackson stated he took responsibility then and now but clarified he has never been violent with his partner Lana or any other woman. Records indicate Lana Pelletier is Jackson's second cousin and they share two adult children.
Collins is the only Republican senator seeking re-election in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2024. She faces a challenging political environment characterized by Trump's low approval ratings, inflation, high fuel prices, and polls indicating an unpopular war with Iran. Known as a moderate who has voted against Trump at times, Collins received bipartisan praise this summer for casting her 10,000th consecutive Senate vote.
Democrats have targeted Collins over her lack of regret regarding her 2018 confirmation vote for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose later vote helped overturn Roe v. Wade. They also criticized her support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding following a fatal shooting involving ICE agents in Maine this summer. However, Collins has recently broken with Trump on issues including his tariff war with Canada and her vote against Attorney General Todd Blanche's confirmation.
The New York Times/Siena poll questioned 619 likely voters in collaboration with The Portland Press Herald and sponsored in part by the Maine Trust for Local News. Both campaigns were contacted for comment but did not respond before publication.
The same polling organization released results for two other key Senate races where Democrats are seeking to hold seats. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas leads former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu 50%-45% in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. In Michigan, Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed leads former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers 49%-44% in the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters.