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News/Macro

Japan Q2 GDP prints 1.1% annualized, misses 2.0% consensus

1.1% annualized, quarter-over-quarter. Japan's preliminary second-quarter GDP reading landed at that level, 90 basis points below the 2.0% consensus and down from 1.8% in the first quarter. The quarterly figure, 0.3%, also missed: the…

By Kwame Asante·Aug 17, 2026·1 min read·macro

Key takeaways

  • Japan's preliminary Q2 GDP rose 1.1% on an annualized quarter-over-quarter basis, missing the 2.0% consensus by 90 basis points.
  • The quarterly (non-annualized) GDP figure came in at 0.3%, below the 0.5% estimate.
  • Q2's 1.1% annualized pace marked a deceleration from the 1.8% annualized rate in Q1, a drop of 70 basis points.
  • The 20-basis-point miss on the quarterly measure (0.3% versus 0.5% expected) drove the headline shortfall.
  • The reading carries a preliminary label.

1.1% annualized, quarter-over-quarter. Japan's preliminary second-quarter GDP reading landed at that level, 90 basis points below the 2.0% consensus and down from 1.8% in the first quarter. The quarterly figure, 0.3%, also missed: the estimate had been 0.5%.

Metric Reported Estimate vs. estimate
GDP, annualized QoQ 1.1% 2.0% -0.9pp
GDP, QoQ 0.3% 0.5% -0.2pp
Prior quarter, annualized QoQ 1.8% n/a n/a

The sequential deceleration from Q1's 1.8% annualized pace amounts to 70 basis points. On the quarterly measure, the 20-basis-point miss against consensus, 0.3% printed against 0.5% expected, drove the headline shortfall. The data carries a preliminary label.

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Frequently asked

By how much did Japan's Q2 GDP miss expectations?

The annualized figure of 1.1% missed the 2.0% consensus by 90 basis points, while the quarterly 0.3% fell 20 basis points short of the 0.5% estimate.

How does Q2 GDP compare to the prior quarter?

Q2's 1.1% annualized pace decelerated from Q1's 1.8% annualized rate, a decline of 70 basis points.

What was Japan's quarter-over-quarter GDP growth in Q2?

The quarterly (non-annualized) GDP figure was 0.3%, below the 0.5% consensus estimate.

Is this GDP reading final?

No, the data carries a preliminary label.