1.2% is the updated Realtor.com projection for 2026 home price growth, a figure revised lower from the firm's prior forecast and one that runs below the pace of inflation. The July 8 release from Austin, Texas puts home prices on course to lose ground in real terms even as nominal values technically edge higher. That gap between the price forecast and inflation is where the buyer cost-burden story sits.
The revised forecast
Realtor.com cut its full-year 2026 home price growth outlook to 1.2%, slower than its original estimate for the year. The firm did not publish the prior figure in the release. What the update establishes: nominal appreciation continues, but at a pace the firm now explicitly calls insufficient to match inflation. In real terms, 2026 home buyers are entering a market where general prices are outrunning property values at the projected rate. Sellers who built expectations on above-inflation appreciation now face that math working against them.
Mortgage rate forecast
Realtor.com held its mortgage rate prediction unchanged in the same July 8 update. No revised rate appeared in the release. The firm's rate view has not moved alongside its softer price outlook, meaning the two primary inputs to affordability are diverging: prices are declining in real terms, while rate expectations hold steady. That divergence shapes the affordability read more than either variable alone.
Cost burden
Realtor.com framed the 1.2% growth rate, falling short of inflation, as a buyer benefit. When home prices appreciate more slowly than the general cost of living, the real cost of entry falls without list prices ever posting a visible nominal drop. That is the mechanism the firm cited for an easing cost burden. The buyer who has been priced out in prior years is on the right side of 1.2%; the seller who priced for a faster market is not. The 1.2% figure is the number repricing that position.