Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 in 2026, describing the firm's long-term target of $1.3 million by 2035 as "relatively easy." Hougan, who noted Bitcoin was trading near $79,900 at the time of his comments, argued that the asset would need to gain roughly 25% to hit his short-term goal and rise about 16-fold to reach its 2035 projection.
In a CoinDesk Markets Outlook interview, Hougan criticized traditional portfolios for being effectively 100% bets on fiat currency. He suggested that investors should replace part of their bond allocation with Bitcoin, potentially shifting a standard 60/40 portfolio to a 60/35/5 split. Hougan claimed that zero exposure to Bitcoin is a "misallocation" that leaves investors vulnerable in the future. He added that allocations of 2% to 5% have become the norm among wealth managers, with some moving as high as 10%, while the historical 1% allocation has largely disappeared from discussions.
Hougan framed his strategy around Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's argument that AI-led productivity could help the U.S. economy outgrow its debt burden. Hougan wrote on X that if Bessent is correct, investors should be long AI stocks; if Bessent is wrong and inflation erodes the currency, investors should be long Bitcoin. He concluded that owning both assets ensures a position in either economic scenario. Bitwise's historical research supports this view, suggesting that introducing a modest Bitcoin position while shortening bond duration could have improved returns.
The CIO credited recent Treasury actions with shifting crypto sentiment from "despair to euphoria." On Aug. 19, the Treasury announced it would at least double the maximum size of buybacks for longer-dated government bonds starting Sept. 9. Hougan said this move, combined with improving news around tokenization and real-world assets, provided an excuse for crypto investors to return. He described current conditions as "extremely bullish," noting that crypto appeared to have formed a bottom just as Wall Street investors returned from their August break.
For context, ARK Invest's published 2030 model estimates Bitcoin prices ranging from a bear-case low of approximately $300,000 to a bull-case high of $1.5 million, with a base case of $710,000. The firm cautions that these figures rely on uncertain assumptions regarding institutional adoption and the asset's store-of-value role. Hougan joked that even if ARK CEO Cathie Wood's top forecast materialized, media coverage might declare Bitcoin "dead" after a drop from $1.5 million to $1.4 million, a swipe at the repeated obituaries accompanying previous crashes.
Despite Hougan's confidence, Bitcoin remains highly volatile, and neither the return to $100,000 nor the longer-term targets are assured.