Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani projects that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per token by the year 2033, driven by a thesis that U.S. currency debasement will make scarce digital assets a preferred hedge. This forecast appears in a research note from Chhugani and his team, who recommend buying Bitcoin to protect against the erosion of the dollar's value. The prediction comes as Bitcoin trades at approximately $78,000 per token, a rebound from a low of below $60,000 earlier this year following an all-time high of more than $126,000 in October.
The analyst argues that the U.S. government is likely to manage its recent debt milestone of $40 trillion through debasement rather than fiscal discipline. Chhugani notes that while current interventions address yield pressures, they do not solve the underlying debt burden. He writes that investors may benefit from owning assets like Bitcoin that cannot be easily created or diluted, as running the economy hot to grow out of debt would naturally lead to a weaker dollar.
Chhugani’s model values Bitcoin as a multiple of its marginal cost, defined as the cost incurred by the miner generating new tokens at the highest expense. The $1 million price target assumes a 1.2 marginal cost multiple. The analyst outlines two primary scenarios for the asset's trajectory:
| Scenario | 2029 Price Target | 2033 Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Accelerated Bull Case | $500,000 | $1 million |
| Base Case | $300,000 | $1 million |
The accelerated bull case assumes macro factors will drive institutional investors to chase Bitcoin. Despite the sector's rough year, Chhugani observes that 60% of investors have held their positions, suggesting continued belief in Bitcoin as a hard asset. The digital gold thesis has faced scrutiny as Bitcoin acted more like a tech stock during the Iran war, facing pressure from elevated inflation, rising oil prices, and higher long-term interest rates.
Recent market developments have renewed interest in the asset. A reported short squeeze and mounting concerns over bond yields have pushed the inflation hedge narrative back into focus. Additionally, investors are watching a looming vote on the Clarity Act, which would establish a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry. While gold has also struggled since the Iran war and is up just 8% this year, Chhugani believes younger generations may prefer Bitcoin as an internet-native inflation hedge over traditional precious metals.