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Soft Jobs Data Cuts Fed Hike Odds, US Futures Flat

10/5/2026

Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in the latest monthly report, a figure the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday that fell well below the 90,000 increase projected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey.

The weak labor market data reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this month, with US equity futures trading mostly flat pre-bell Monday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq futures were 0.2% lower.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 80.6% likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold its benchmark rate steady at the end of the month, up from 76% on Thursday.

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