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Scalise projects 225 House seats for GOP, rejects 235 target

10/7/2026

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) told Axios he believes Republicans can secure 225 seats in the upcoming election, describing the number as a high-water mark for the party.

The claim stands in contrast to the 235-seat majority threshold, which Scalise dismissed as unattainable. "If we make it a contrast election, we win," Scalise said in an interview conducted Thursday.

It would be a good night for us if we did, but it's possible," he added.

You're literally doing coin tosses in a couple of seats." Scalise’s projection relies on converting the race into a referendum on the opposing party, a strategy designed to match Democratic voter enthusiasm.

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