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A 58% reduction in TD Cowen's valuation target for Nakamoto is the figure the revised call turns on. The firm cited $BTC's decline as the mechanism: falling bitcoin prices press directly on Nakamoto's capital structure.
David Bailey leads the company, and the analyst update amounts to a reset of TD Cowen's bitcoin outlook.
The capital structure problem Bitcoin-linked balance sheets carry a structural risk that equity analysts must price explicitly.
When the underlying asset falls, the arithmetic on a bitcoin-heavy structure shifts fast, and equity value can compress beyond the asset's own move. TD Cowen's revised target reflects that dynamic.
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