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Long-term Treasury yields are being held up by Trump-era policy risk, heavy government borrowing, and AI-driven corporate debt.
Analysis of those dynamics concludes that bringing yields lower could require a weaker economy. The current administration's policy direction, the analysis argues, is unlikely to produce it.
The three forces working against lower yields are distinct in origin. Heavy government borrowing keeps Treasury supply elevated, sustaining pressure on the long end.
Trump-era policy decisions have introduced a risk premium that investors require for duration exposure.
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