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Fifty-six percent is the probability markets now assign to a Federal Reserve rate hike, up 31 percentage points from 25% one week ago, after Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
The 10-year Treasury yield moved to its highest level since January 2025 on that repricing. Analysts say a weak or negative jobs report on Friday could be the next trigger for significant market volatility.
The week's repricing | Metric | Current | Week prior | |---|---|---| | Implied rate hike probability | 56% | 25% | | Change | +31pp | | A 31-percentage-point shift in implied rate hike odds inside seven days is a large move.
Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole appear to have been the single forcing function.
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