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Fed hike probability hits 60% as August CPI and PPI data approach Sept. 15-16 decision

9/7/2026

Nearly 60%, per the CME Group FedWatch Tool, is the current probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Funds Rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee's September 15-16 meeting.

That figure reset after Chairman Kevin Warsh's Aug.

28 speech, where he pledged to tame elevated inflation: "We have work to do." A hike would lift the funds rate from its current 3.50%-3.75% target to 3.75%-4.00%, raising short-term borrowing costs on credit cards and home-equity loans.

The two data prints that settle the question arrive this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August Producer Price Index figures on September 10 and the Consumer Price Index on September 11.